Who will make it to 2020?

People & Politics

In the next ten years, development will become the main political issue with different social groups demanding their share of the India growth story, writes Arati Jerath.

The clearest evidence that the political paradigm is changing came from Nitish Kumar's sweeping victory in the 2010 Bihar assembly elections. He cooked up a storm with a development plank that pushed traditional politics, both of patronage and identity, to the margins of irrelevance and gave him numbers that all political leaders dream of but rarely get. It was a personal triumph for Nitish but the real significance of his win lies in what it says about the emergence of development as a key political issue in today's India.

With the economy projected to continue growing at between 7-9% annually over the next decade, there is every reason to believe that development and governance issues will increasingly dominate public discourse with different social groups demanding their share of the GDP pie. The Congress party's politics of patronage of vote banks had currency in an underdeveloped economy. Caste and religion-based identity politics took over as the process of economic and social empowerment began with the opening up of the economy. Today, after a period of rapid growth, politics is set to enter another phase, which is likely to be defined by battles for a more equitable distribution of wealth and resources.

The lessons from Bihar are slowly being assimilated. Nitish's mastery over the emerging new idiom reaped him huge electoral dividends. Now Mayawati is seeking to emulate him as she scrambles to set her house in order before the 2012 state polls. Like Nitish next door, she too is concentrating her energies on targeted development projects for marginalized communities. Dalit villages are at the top of her list, but she is also trying to ensure that roads, electricity, water, schools and primary health care centres reach areas populated by extremely backward castes and minorities. In fact, UP's utilization record of funds allocated for development of minority concentration districts is one of the best — almost 60%. She is revisiting the law and order issue as well by cracking down on goonda elements, including those in her own party. This is the same woman who relished courting controversy with Ambedkar parks in pink sandstone and giant statues of herself in a bid to promote her Dalit politics.

It is important to understand the nature of the development politics taking shape. It's not just a simple matter of building roads or providing electricity. The question to which voters are demanding an answer is: development for whom? Nitish's success lay in the focused manner in which he took development to different social groups to create a wider constituency beyond his narrow caste base. This is identity politics of a different kind in which mobilization is not merely on the basis of caste but also on economic, gender and age subgroups.

The coming decade will see an acceleration of the factors responsible for altering the political dynamics in the country. The three important ones are the mainstreaming of marginalized social groups, the communications revolution and increasing urbanization. The biggest success of Indian democracy has been empowerment of castes and communities that existed outside the social pale. The spread of adult franchise, a series of affirmative steps like reservations, a slew of welfare measures and the growth of market forces are changing the feudal nature of social and economic relations. The rise of caste-based parties, the land battles at Singur, even the spread of Naxalism are all signs that those at the bottom are demanding to be heard.

Increasing connectivity has only strengthened the process of empowerment. Mobile phone connections have already zoomed beyond 600 million and are expected to cross 1 billion by 2015, while television penetration, according to industry estimates, will cross the 60% mark by 2020. It means people in every corner of the country are rapidly getting connected and acquiring independent means of accessing information. It also means that voters can no longer be fooled by mere rhetoric and empty promises. They want delivery and are acquiring the means to monitor it.
The third factor, urbanization, has the potential to take politics beyond caste to include class. More than one third of the population is likely to be living in cities and towns by 2020 and their concerns and issues will be shaped by their urban environment and the growing disparity between the rich and the poor, between those who live in gated communities and drive shiny, big cars and those who live in slums without basic civic amenities and have to make do with shoddy public transport.

A transforming India means a changing polity. Those who keep pace with the times will emerge as the powerhouses while others will fall behind. The visible process of fragmentation into subgroups, subregions and subcultures gives regional forces an advantage over national parties which have to work with a larger canvas. Regional satraps like Nitish or Mayawati or Naveen Patnaik or even Narendra Modi and Yeddyurappa (who despite belonging to the BJP are really regional chieftains) are better connected to the grassroots. They also have the flexibility to knit together an electorally successful social alliance specific to their state without having to worry about the bigger national picture. The BJP was compelled by local Karnataka considerations to allow scam-hit Yeddyurappa to continue as chief minister even as it fought a high-pitched battle over corruption at the centre with the Congress.

Nitish's victory underlines the continuing relevance of the satraps. The Congress in its glory days was an umbrella party of strong regional leaders. Its decay began when Indira Gandhi started cutting them down one by one till the party stood decimated in numerically important states such as UP and Bihar. Today, regional chieftains have created their own political units while the Modis and Yeddyurappas survive in a national party like the BJP only because they have been given almost complete autonomy.

Yet, as Nitish understood and as Mayawati seems to be realizing, regional leaders have to expand their political horizons beyond caste identities to remain on top. They have to put together broader social coalitions while national parties will have to put aside their dreams of single-party rule and contend with political coalitions to run the centre. This is one reality that is unlikely to go away even as the political frame expands to include issues of development and governance.

Past tense

In politics, every player works and waits for a big moment. A real leader emerges when there is perfect harmony between his ideas and the people's mood. But, at some point, he has to fade away. The leaders who make desperate attempts to cling to their receding turf often face humiliation. Lalu Prasad, once the giant of Bihar politics, was rejected by the state in the latest election. Sunday Times looks at the canvas 10 years down the line to guess where some of the most durable leaders will be at the onset of the century's third decade

Arun Jaitley

At a time when the images of marauding kar sevaks demolishing a mosque haunted the BJP, a young lawyer made an attempt to bring the party's central discourse into the constitutional framework. For the newly emerging Indian middle class, Arun Jaitley was a welcome change. He defended his party but not its inclination towards religious fundamentalism. Over the years he has drawn a line between the BJP's position as a conservative party and the elements pulling it into the chaos of communal posturing. Articulating his party's support for the women's bill in the Rajya Sabha, Jaitley referred to a similar legislation in Pakistan. Perhaps no other BJP leader today would dare to take such a bold step. If the party recedes into the doctrine of religious revivalism in the coming years, moderates like Jaitley will be pushed to the margin. But a realisation that a hardline approach is a flawed strategy to win elections even for a majoritarian outfit like the BJP may allow Jaitley to raise new signposts for the party's future. Basically a strategist fond of setting the field for an election campaign, Jaitley can still be relevant beyond 2020. If he ties down the government on a tricky issue of constitutional inappropriateness and in the process prevents his party's swing towards the extreme right position, it's good news for India.

Mamata Banerjee

She has trudged into an arena which even the Devil will fear to tread — challenging the entrenched communists in their bastion. Indeed, so overwhelming was the penetration of Left politics into the psyche of West Bengal that many Congressmen were reconciled to a red star over Writers' Building. Not the feisty woman from a shantytown near Kolkata's Kalighat temple. Despite her incohesion, Mamata Banerjee has made the people believe that there can be life beyond Marxist politics. This itself is an achievement irrespective of the outcome of next year's assembly elections. However, given the polemical nature of her politics and her rapid-fire style, it will be difficult for Mamata to sustain her brand for a long time. Ten years down the line she is unlikely to ride the crest of the waves. In all probability history will remember her more as a street-fighter, more in the mould of Lech Walesa leading Solidarity in Gdansk shipyards, rather than a Nelson Mandela leading a mauled people into peace and stability through a smooth transition.


Sitaram Yechury

The Left always accuses the media of being on the side of big business. One from their ranks, however, has been a favourite of the 24x7 channels. The kind of media space CPM politburo member Sitaram Yechury commands is the envy of many senior ministers. The reason for his popularity is the Marxist leader's understanding of the language of change. Even when the CPM is facing the real threat of being ousted from power in both Kerala and Bengal after its disastrous performance in the 2009 general election, he still holds forth, arguing his party's viewpoint with perfect elan. He does not believe the advent of technology can radically alter politics. "Technology can change the mode of propaganda but the core issues will remain the same," he points out, dismissing the notion that density of mobile telephony can take the focus away from basic concerns. "Of course, the audiences will be better informed," he says. Rejecting the view that India is on the cusp of an economic resurgence, he says, "The crisis in the system will remain the same." But he agrees India is going beyond the staples of yesterday's politics. "Climate change will become crucially relevant to the basic issues," he points out. The 58-year-old Rajya Sabha member is amused by the prospects of fading away by 2020. "You're relevant as long as you can keep pace with the changes," he says.

Mayawati

At the core of UP chief minister Mayawati's politics is a deep-rooted sense of injustice among her followers who, as her mentor Kanshi Ram used to say, are the base of India's social pyramid. With about 15% of the Dalit vote secured in her basket, Mayawati would do business with an ally for additional support to capture power in UP. "My supporters will go out and vote for anybody I want them to, but theirs will not," she kept saying until a major segment of the Brahmins, exasperated by Mulayam Singh's brand of politics, entered into a social agreement with Mayawati and ensured 200 plus seats for the BSP in the last assembly elections. In a sharp reversal, a significant number of Dalits did not back the BSP in the 2009 election. They preferred Rahul Gandhi's Congress. Observers saw 2009 as the first hint of erosion in caste politics. If the voting pattern is repeated on a larger scale in the 2012 election that will spell disaster for 54-year-old Mayawati's brand of politics and her dream of becoming the country's first Dalit prime minister.

Future perfect

A brave new generation of leaders with fresh, innovative ideas may start calling the shots some time in the next decade. Bhaskar Roy takes a look at some of the future leaders and analyses their idea of India.

Jyotiraditya Scindia

Scindia, 39, has won three successive elections from Guna in the Gwalior region with ease. A close friend of Rahul Gandhi, he is a man of many passions: politics, sports and social issues. For the minister of state for commerce, the new decade will offer fresh possibilities and also a backlog of unresolved issues from the past. "Water is going to be a big issue in the near future," says Scindia. Safe drinking water will be scarce unless a plan is worked out on a war footing with the adoption of the right technology. With consumption levels rising every year, energy will be a cause for concern 10 years from now. The search for a substitute for fossil fuels needs new impetus since petroleum reserves are going to deplete within the next few decades. As a rising power, India will have to deal with such issues in the coming years, he says. The young leader sees Indian society being impacted as much by education and forward-looking legislations as by new technology. "Global warming is going to be a very big issue as it will have a bearing on crop patterns and food output."

Mausam Noor

The 30-year-old MP from the Bengal backwater of North Malda is a lawyer by training. But childhood images of crowds at the Malda mansion of her uncle, Congress strongman Ghani Khan Chowdhury, left a deep impression on her. She wanted to don Ghani Khan's political mantle but did not know that the opportunity would come so early. Before the 2009 election, Sonia Gandhi preferred her over the other claimants from within the clan for the seat. Defying the media stereotype of the glam brigade in Parliament, Mausam has got down to work in Bengal's politics polarised between the Marxists and Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool. "I courted arrest recently as part of a protest," she says. The big picture, she argues, is changing faster than the political class is ready for because of the inroads made by technology. "The world is looking at India as a big power, convergence of the two Indias is the need of the hour." By 2020, she believes, the average age of MPs will go down. "A younger leadership should represent a younger nation," she says. Issues and concerns, too, are going to change. With people's aspirations rising, connectivity improving, the delivery mechanism will have to be more efficient, she says.

Sachin Pilot

Pilot, 33, earned his stripes by snatching away the Ajmer seat from the BJP in a hard-fought battle in the 2009 general election. Savvy, charismatic and a member of Team Rahul, the junior minister in the telecom department has a clear roadmap to 2020. "Roads can still be bad in some parts of the country but the optical network connecting each of the 2.5 lakh panchayats will be strong," he says, claiming that this ambitious goal will be achieved by 2012. He sees challenges of urbanisation, migration, land alienation and insurgencies of the Naxalite variety as some of the major challenges for the country in the coming years. At the same time, Pilot sees technology as a great equaliser which will bring down the barricades of perceived disparities and biases. To a large extent, according to him, blackboards will be replaced by computer screens. As an outcome of technological penetration, society as a whole is going to raise more questions. With the rural population connected to the system through high-speed broadband, aspiration levels will rise making governance more transparent and responsive. "How do you communicate with the system in the 21st century? It's only through e-governance," he says, offering glimpses into the not-so-distant future.

Manick Tagore

The 35-year-old Youth Congress functionary from Sivaganga in Tamil Nadu is a giant killer. His schoolteacher father was an ardent fan of Rabindranath Tagore, says the first-term MP. "I was given the great poet's surname by my father." The opportunity to trounce a stalwart came unexpectedly. "Rahul Gandhi asked me to take on Vaiko in Virudhunagar. 'Make it a good fight', he said." Until then Manick had been busy organising elections for the youth body's state units. The little-known youth activist became famous overnight as the "boy who vanquished Vaiko". Like his mentor, Manick speaks the language of transformation at the grassroots. "Micro and medium scale industry is going to be the vehicle of change," he says, borrowing heavily from Rahul Gandhi. "If the Tatas set up a plant in my constituency that will employ a thousand people maximum. But micro-scale industry can absorb the excess labour from agriculture, and that's the future." He sees this as a future trend and a pointer to the direction India may take in the next decade.

Varun Gandhi

Like cousin Rahul, he is a Gandhi too. But Varun has walked across the fence into the Hindutva camp. The BJP MP from Pilibhit had triggered a furore by delivering a rabidly communal speech on the campaign trail during the last general election. If the world was shocked by his communal rhetoric, it certainly turned him into a saffron icon. Educated at the prestigious Rishi Valley School and Delhi's British School, the only son of Sanjay and Maneka Gandhi has moved to the right. "Rise above caste to build a unified Hindu society," he said while visiting flood victims in Mirzapur in UP earlier this year. For the saffron party, Varun could not have joined them at a more opportune time.

Down and out after two successive defeats, for the opposition party he is an answer to the Congress' future leader, Rahul Gandhi. Already a member of the BJP's national executive, Varun seems set to rise further in the party hierarchy. In the new decade, this Gandhi is sure to occupy one of the top chairs his party can offer as right-of-the-centre politics will continue to occupy political space in the coming decade.

Read more: Who will make it to 2020? - The Times of India http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/sunday-toi/special-report/Who-will-make-it-to-2020/articleshow/7164789.cms#ixzz19hJwsdrk